As more information is steadily coming in about the November 2016 New Zealand earthquake, there may be more things which need to be considered about large seismic events. Possibly, there are some very important lessons to be recognized in this event, especially by people living in the Cascadia region of North America. For starters, let us examine an article, linked here, which is titled 'Kaikoura earthquake moved the South Island, new research shows.' So, exactly how much did the South Island move in this quake? According to the article, parts of the island moved "more than 5 metres [more than 16 feet] closer to the North Island."
There is something found in the article linked above which is a bit disturbing. The scientific community has put a lot of time and taxpayers' money into investigating earthquakes, but the characteristics of the New Zealand earthquake "could not have been predicted by existing models." So, it appears that these models and methods which the scientists have been using are seriously flawed. Obvious problems of this nature do not sound good, especially for people who live in the Cascadia region of western North America and who are putting their "blind" faith in the scientists of that region and their flawed models.
A BBC article, linked here, is titled 'Kaikoura: Most complex quake ever studied.' Regarding the models of the scientists, when considering what happened in the New Zealand quake, one geophysicist declared: "What we saw was a scenario that would never have been included in our seismic hazard models." Once again, there is a question which we should be asking ourselves. Is the same thing happening with the scientists and their models in the Cascadia region of North America? When Cascadia breaks loose, will everyone once again be totally surprised? Will the scientists once again be utterly blindsided, because the actual event does not match their models and what they think Nature should do?
A page, linked here, notes Dr Ian Hamling, of GNS Science, as stating: "Some of the apparent jumps between faults I don't think any seismic hazards model in the world would have considered a possible scenario." Okay, so the words "any seismic hazards model in the world" should also include those seismic hazard models which are being used by the scientists in the Cascadia region of North America --- as they work to predict the characteristics of the coming, massive Cascadia seismic event. But there is something even more important to noted in the page. These flawed seismic models of the scientists "are used by authorities for building codes." Do you see where all this is leading?
The authorities are setting the standard for seismic building codes based on the flawed and underestimated models of the scientists. So, the outcome of all this should be rather obvious to any thinking individual. It appears that in Cascadia and around the world, things are being set up for an incredible amount of devastation and loss of human life, because the seismic building codes are being set much too low. Buildings and other structures built to these flawed codes in the Cascadia region can potentially fail, possibly even catastrophically, when Cascadia finally breaks loose with its full potential. Bottom line is, the damage has already been done. Many buildings and other structures, including bridges, have been built in accordance with these flawed codes.
Near the end of the page, linked here, something else is brought out which is somewhat unsettling. It states: "If [the Kaikoura earthquake (in New Zealand)] had happened 1000 years ago ... if you were to look at it with current paleoseismic methods that are available you would see it as separate individual events. You would never consider it as a single rupture." Let it now be noted that these same "scientific" methods are generally used to "interpret" what has happened in the geologic past in the Cascadia region of North America. It is therefore very possible that a certain percentage of what the scientists are declaring as being the results of separate seismic events may, in fact, actually have happened in a single, extremely powerful event in the past.
The latter part of the page linked above reinforces the above possibility. The page states: "It may be in fact that past earthquakes which were considered as smaller, individual ruptures, potentially could have been one big rupture. That feeds into long term hazards, in which you can end up with larger events than you might expect." So, in Cascadia, the scientists with their expensive, potentially flawed models and toys have been predicting possibly an M9.0 or an M9.2 seismic event. So, it is time for all thinking individuals to begin questioning what we shall really experience, once Cascadia breaks loose with its full potential.
Moving onward, an article at phys.org, which is linked here, is titled 'Kaikoura quake may prompt rethink of earthquake hazard models internationally.' The article states that this 2016 New Zealand earthquake "was so complex and unusual that it is likely to lead to changes in the way scientists think about earthquake hazards in plate boundary zones worldwide." At this point, let it be noted that the Cascadia region of North America is also located over a plate boundary zone. It is located over the boundary between the Pacific Plate and the North American plate.
Looking again at New Zealand, the article linked above declares: "The earthquake ruptured at least 12 major crustal faults plus another nine lesser faults and there was also evidence of slip along southern end of the Hikurangi subduction zone plate boundary..." So, a lot of unusual things were happening during this New Zealand earthquake event. The page also states: "The largest movement during the earthquake occurred on the Kekerengu Fault, where pieces of the Earth's crust were displaced relative to each other by up to 25m [up to 82 feet] at a depth of about 15km." That is a lot of movement in one event. So, considering these things, what potentially can be expected in the Cascadia region in the days ahead?
An article, linked here, is titled 'New Zealand's 2016 Kaikoura earthquake was one of the most complex ever recorded.' Why is this quake now being considered as "one of the most complex ever recorded?" In this earthquake event, scientists have "discovered up to 12 faults ruptured at great distances apart -- a finding that may mean current hazard models need to be completely rethought. It could also mean the risk of large earthquakes elsewhere are more likely." This information leads to a question. Are there lessons from the New Zealand earthquake which better be rapidly applied to the extremely complex Cascadia region, so that we can realistically consider and better prepare for what is coming?
The article linked above notes that "there were surface ruptures on at least 12 major faults up to 15km [up to 9 miles] apart, with extensive uplift along much of the coastline." The article states that "these results were of huge surprise." Yes, the scientists were totally surprised and blindsided, just as they were in the Sumatra quake of 2004 and the Japan quake of 2011, plus in quakes elsewhere (1)(2)(3).
In New Zealand, the general scientific community had absolutely no clue that something like this November 2016 seismic event could ever happen. Again, is there a major lesson in all of this for those who reside in the Cascadia region of North America? Is there a major lesson in this for those who reside in the states of Washington, Oregon and California, plus those in British Columbia, Canada? Is there a major lesson for those who may be rather "blindly" putting their faith in what the scientists and mainstream news media are telling them about the potential characteristics and danger of the next Cascadia megaquake event --- which they are basing on flawed models?
Yes, the New Zealand quake event is totally "challenging current assumptions [in the scientific community] about earthquakes." The New Zealand quake propagated along both "mapped and unmapped faults." These unmapped or undiscovered faults --- these faults which are completely unknown to most of the scientists prior to the actual earthquake event --- are the "wild card" in any earthquake event. These unknown and unmapped faults --- of which there are many in the Cascadia region --- can have a great effect on the characteristics and outcome of a major earthquake event. These unknown and unmapped faults will definitely have a great effect on what will be happening in the next, massive Cascadia earthquake event and what will be happening to residents of this region. But there is more to this story.
The article about the New Zealand quake --- which we have now been drawing information from --- indicates that the final rupture length experienced during this event "was largely due to stress levels and geometric complexities." So, what is happening in the Cascadia region of North America? What kind of stress levels and geometric complexities exist in this region? A section in a page titled 'Current Expectations for a Cascadia Mega-Quake,' which is linked here, speaks of "dextral torsion between the North American and Pacific plates." A section of that page, linked here, has links to diagrams which "show the clockwise rotation of the western parts of California, Oregon and Washington around the elliptical basin, based on GPS data."
A section in a webpage, linked here, is titled "Wound Up to Breaking Point." It notes that this geologic stress being steadily built up in the Cascadia region "amounts to a large spring being wound. More and more tension is steadily added. At some point, the stress in the landmass will cause it to reach its breaking point." The page states further: "When all of the pent up stress finally breaks things loose, it appears that part of the initial line of rupture occurs relatively close to the Interstate-5 freeway corridor, rather than far offshore at what is called the Cascadia Subduction Zone." It appears that the Cascadia region of western North America could then experience a new, world record in a single earthquake event.
A page linked here is titled 'Researchers have dramatically underestimated the risk of earthquakes...' Why is this? The page states: "Maps showing the estimated hazard posed by quakes in different regions are generally based on the assumption of single segment ruptures." The page continues: "In earthquake scenarios where fault segments link up, there is a bigger area available to rupture, ramping up the quake's energy." And so, in the next Cascadia event, there may realistically be a number of faults which link up --- some of them being rather large and complex faults and even giant rifts. This should make for one incredible seismic event.
The page linked above contains the following statement: "The Kaikoura quake will likely remain unparalleled for some time." Yes, this New Zealand event may remain unparalleled --- unparalleled until Cascadia cuts loose in all its glory. Possibly that is why the page also states that "we may find that the 2016 events and the wisdom gained could be overshadowed in the not so distant future." Yes, Cascadia, in all its glory, may soon bring things to a whole new level of seismic and geologic understanding.
For further reading:
Current Expectations for a Cascadia Mega-Quake
https://cascadian.neocities.org/cascadiaquake.htm
No comments:
Post a Comment