On the Columbia River, Near Portland

The hazard presented by the Hanford Nuclear Reservation, in the event of a Cascadia mega-quake, was lightly touched upon in yesterday's post. But, there is a nuclear hazard which is much closer to a major population center and the very important Interstate-5 freeway corridor. Furthermore, this nuclear hazard is situated on the banks of the Columbia River, where it, in the event of a massive mega-quake, presents the potential for a serious nuclear disaster in a populated region. This nuclear hazard resides at the site of the old Trojan Nuclear Plant, near Rainier Oregon.

But, you say, the plant was decommissioned and demolished long ago and its nuclear reactor vessel was hauled to the Hanford Nuclear Reservation. So, what is the problem? The potential problem is the 34 "spent-fuel" casks which reside outdoors on a concrete pad, beside the Columbia River. Yes, there is at least a chain-link fence around them and someone guarding them. The KOIN article linked below states: "But what the security guards can't prevent, an earthquake, is the biggest threat to Trojan." The article then brings up an important point. It states: "The silos [casks] sit on an earthquake fault." Yes, that is right folks -- "on an earthquake fault."

Can radioactive waste at Trojan withstand a major quake?
http://koin.com/2016/05/04/can-radioactive-waste-at-trojan-withstand-a-major-quake/

The article linked above contains even more information which is worthy of further examination. It states that the 34 casks "hold more than 379 tons of highly radioactive nuclear waste" which is in the form of "790 spent uranium fuel rods." But, what is said about this "highly radioactive nuclear waste" and its storage containers, in the event of an earthquake? Let us consider what is being said by a spokesman from Portland General Electric, named Steve Corson.

Regarding a major earthquake, Corson declares: "We would not expect to see any damage to these storage containers as a result of something like that." But, let us look at things closer. A Cascadia mega-quake is not in the class of just a major earthquake. A major earthquake is generally one with a magnitude of 7.0 to 7.9. In Cascadia, we are talking about an earthquake with a magnitude of 9.0+ and potentially lasting for a number of minutes. Then, regarding movement of the storage casks during an earthquake, Corson declares: "Even movement shouldn't be a problem, even if you knocked one over, that should not be a problem." But, there is more to consider about what will likely be happening during a genuine Cascadia mega-quake.

Once again, let us note that the 34 storage casks at the Trojan site sit on an earthquake fault. This fault appears to generally reside above the ancient, deeply buried concealed rift. At this point, it should be noted that a number of scientists are stating that the epicenters for the next Cascadia mega-quake could be located inland, much closer to population centers. Therefore, during a massive Cascadia event, the intensity and duration of shaking could be much greater than the rather casual picture which PGE is presenting to the public. In a full-blown Cascadia mega-quake, it may be much more than just one cask being knocked over. With the potential for large-scale, undulating surface waves (with the surface of the ground moving like ocean swells, like that illustrated in the links below) occurring over a period of a number of minutes, it is very possible that a number of these casks will be knocked over. But there is more to this story.

Surface waves - The ground surface rolls with a wavelike motion
https://classconnection.s3.amazonaws.com/754/flashcards/1160754/png/surface_waves1328630254568.png

D. Surface wave
http://www.webpages.uidaho.edu/~simkat/cors220_files/Rayleighwave.jpg

Surface waves
http://image.slidesharecdn.com/seismicwavesfinal2-150226104326-conversion-gate02/95/seismic-waves-5-638.jpg?cb=1424952325

Each of the 34 casks at Trojan is said to weigh about 150 tons. In a massive mega-quake with large, undulating surface waves which last for a number of minutes, these 150 ton items could potentially be smashing into one another -- 150 ton rigid items smashing into 150 ton rigid items, like giant wrecking balls  --  repeatedly. Considering this scenario further, during a massive mega-quake, these rigid containers could be beating each other to pieces, exposing their highly radioactive contents to the open air and the surrounding environment. And, if enough of this nuclear fuel ends up being stacked together, what could happen? Is there a potential for a criticality accident to occur? Could there be an open-air, uncontrolled nuclear chain reaction -- in Portland's "back yard?"

Jeff Gianola and the Koin News Staff must be commended on their effort in the article which is linked above. They make it clear that PGE "can only speculate about earthquake damage," and PGE's speculation is that "the radioactive waste stored at Trojan will survive a natural disaster." It is time to consider the wording used, and yes, PGE has their image and liability to protect. But, there is once again more to consider here. Yes, this radioactive waste at Trojan may survive "a natural disaster." But, can it realistically survive a full-blown mega-quake event intact and fully contained, if Cascadia should cut loose with its full potential? Can it survive such an event without radiation being spread abroad in the surrounding environment, via wind and river. These are just a couple of the questions which truly must be considered -- before the quake occurs.


For further reading:

Current Expectations for a Cascadia Mega-Quake
https://cascadian.neocities.org/cascadiaquake.htm